Brightline bond document revises forecast for 2024 as monthly delivery steadies: Analysis

By Bob Johnston | March 23, 2024

Information includes booking, capacity, and repeat customer details

On Sept. 24, 2023, an Orlando-bound Brightline train passes the site near the 

Stuart, Fla., water tower where a new station is to be built. 

Currently, all departures are hourly and operate with one 

Premium class and three Smart class coaches, which creates a wide d

isparity of fares and sellouts as demand changes.

 A report to bondholders confirms coaches are supposed to arrive 

this year, leading to the possibility some trainsets will be expanded. Bob Johnston

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MIAMI — As the Spring Break surge approaches, Brightline continues to seek

 the right pricing strategy when operating 16 daily fixed-consist round trips 

between South Florida and Orlando, plus another two to handle early morning

 and late evening Miami-West Palm Beach travel.

A password-protected, 2,044-page supplement to a “Preliminary limited 

remarketing memorandum relating to $770 million in Florida Development Finance 

Corporation Revenue Bonds” contains a wealth of information most transportation 

providers aren’t required — or willing —to share. It reveals revenue and ridership 

data for February, released Wednesday, which reflects the balance Brightline 

marketing strategists face as demand varies by time, day, and dramatically 

different prices for city-pair combinations.

The table above adds two operating months to an initial Trains News Wire evaluation 

[see “Brightline growth continues …,” Feb. 5, 2024]. During January and February, 

fares were deeply discounted on some runs while others sold out at higher prices. 

The supplement provides additional context behind the numbers:

— Approximately one of three trains operates at or near capacity; about half of 

departures have load factors of 80% or more.

— Restricting available capacity for short-distance trips is responsible for the 

continuing year-over-year decline of Miami-West Palm patronage. Higher 

short-distance fares could also be a factor.

— Daily bookings have risen from an initial 2,800 in October 2023, to 4,300 in 

February 2024, and 4,500 for the first half of March.

— South Florida-Orlando repeat customer bookings are increasing 15% 

month-over-month

— Confirming that 10 additional coaches are to be delivered by Siemens in 2024, 

the company estimates strategic placement of this extra capacity would have added 

an additional 50,000 passengers to the February totals.

Two Brightline trainsets wait for their next assignment at MiamiCentral on Feb. 8, 2023. Bob Johnston

Brightline is now predicting 4.9 million passengers will use its trains in 2024. 

This is a downward revision from the 5.5 million it projected in December after it became clear that capacity constraints were impacting the Orlando-South Florida month-over-month trajectory

Additional growth sources are anticipated. An intermediate Treasure Coast 

station at Stuart, Fla., 37 miles north of West Palm Beach, could be ready as early as 2026 

[see “Brightline ceremony marks the selection of Stuart, Fla. …,” News Wire, March 4, 2024].

 Adding the stop in a congested coastal area that lacks speedy public transportation will clearly

 strengthen overall demand as stations at Aventura and Boca Raton, Fla., have done south of 

West Palm Beach.

With another “infill” stop at Cocoa, Fla., under development 

[see “Brightline to add Cocoa, Fla., station,” News Wire, March 13, 2024], it appears

 that congestion-free regional travel is poised to become a more important component 

of the Orlando-Miami mix than originally envisioned.

A more immediate wild card continues to be not if, but how many, non-Florida U.S. 

and international travelers will augment the growth as summer travel months approach. 

The company has stepped up its efforts to incentivize distribution channels that could 

help steer increased patronage its way.

However, figuring out when to add coaches to certain round trips is sure to make 

operations more complicated—but necessary, if Brightline is to accommodate the 

additional demand its marketing is able to generate. Will six-car trainsets be the 

answer? If so, which departures? Will amenity offerings change?

The bond memorandum projects that by 2026, Brightline will carry 8 million 

passengers, generating $695 million in ticket revenue. This is based on a WSP 

consultant’s study that assumes a 0.8% “real” and approximately 2.0% “nominal” 

fare growth in 2021 dollars.

This is how that forecast translates on a monthly basis.

 Comparing these numbers with what has been achieved in the first five months 

of operation shows there is a long way to go. Monthly delivery throughout the 

remainder of 2024 will likely fluctuate as the company tests different capacity and pricing.  

Trains News Wire will continue to monitor the journey in the months and years ahead.